| Title |
A Spatially Differentiated System Dynamics Analysis of Urban Flooding and Citizen Safety |
| Authors |
이가영(Lee Gayoung) ; 김여원(Kim Yeowon) |
| DOI |
https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2025.41.6.463 |
| Keywords |
Climate change adaptation; Climate risk analysis; Scenario-based policy making; Urban complex system; Urban infrastructure; Urban resilience |
| Abstract |
Urban expansion and climate change have heightened flood risks by increasing impervious surfaces and altering rainfall patterns. Many previous studies, however, have overlooked spatial heterogeneity and feedback dynamics across urban zones. This study employs a system dynamics (SD) model to analyze the interactions between urban flooding and citizen safety in Sejong City, South Korea. Five policy scenarios were evaluated: (1) a baseline scenario with current drainage and green space, allowing for approximately 1% annual urbanization (“Undesirable”); (2) intensified precipitation (“Potential Risk”); (3) expansion of the drainage system (“Strategic”); (4) expansion of green space (“Adaptive”); and (5) a combination of gray and green infrastructure expansion (“Transformative”). The city was divided into core and peripheral zones to capture variations in land use. Results indicate that the Transformative scenario was the most effective, increasing citizen safety by 80% in core zones and 60% in peripheral zones. In core zones, the Strategic scenario provided immediate benefits, but long-term resilience required an integrated approach combining gray and green measures. In peripheral zones, green space expansion was generally sufficient, except in low-lying or newly urbanized areas, where infrastructure upgrades were necessary. By providing scenario-based simulations that incorporate feedbacks within urban systems, this study offers a framework for spatially differentiated flood risk management. The findings highlight the need to strengthen engineered systems in core zones while implementing nature-based or hybrid approaches in peripheral zones to enhance adaptive capacity amid increasing hydrological uncertainty. |