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Title |
Early Detection of Dam Release Risk at North Korea's Hwanggang Dam Using Satellite SAR Time Series and Forecasting Models
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DOI |
https://doi.org/10.15681/KSWE.2026.42.3.220 |
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Keywords |
Climate change adaptation; Ensemble forecasting; Hwanggang Dam; Sentinel-1 SAR; Transboundary flood risk |
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Abstract |
Climate change is increasing extreme precipitation and flood risks in transboundary river basins where sharing hydrological information is limited. The Imjin River basin on the Korean Peninsula illustrates this challenge, as a significant portion of its upstream catchment is in North Korea, where access to in situ observations and dam operation data is severely restricted. In this context, upstream reservoirs like Hwanggang Dam have been identified as potential sources of downstream flood hazards, yet systematic risk assessment remains challenging. This study introduces a satellite-based analytical framework to detect hydrological variability and assess potential dam release risks around Hwanggang Dam using long-term Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) observations. The analysis combines time-series decomposition, anomaly detection, and predictive modeling to identify both recurring seasonal patterns and deviations linked to increased hydrological risk. To enhance robustness, statistical time-series models are integrated with machine-learning techniques through an ensemble forecasting strategy that considers both long-term structural trends and short-term fluctuations. The results indicate significant seasonal regularity and non-linear trend changes in hydrological conditions near Hwanggang Dam, suggesting that flood risk is influenced by the interplay of climatic seasonality and longer-term structural factors rather than random variability alone. This study highlights the potential of satellite SAR-based time-series analysis as a non-intrusive early warning tool for flood risk management in transboundary river basins affected by climate change.
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